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| Late iPhone 5 Release Affected By iPhone 4 Sales Posted: 18 Apr 2011 06:31 AM PDT
You know the old saying: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. For as much as Apple analysts have pointed to the rise of the Droid platform in 2010 as the first shot fired in the smartphone wars, and that the iPhone 5 has to “keep pace” with Droid technology to remain competitive, iPhone 4 sales remain brisk. Apple sold nearly 40 million iPhones in 2010 alone — most of which were of the iPhone 4 variety — and the launch of the Verizon iPhone in 2011 and the soon-to-be white iPhone 4 (which we predicted as a spring 2011 release back in October) all point to continued robust sales throughout the spring and early summer. Given this reality, why are we even surprised that the iPhone 5 remains sidelined? There’s no doubt that the iPhone 5 has been completely designed and tested by Apple — there have even been rumors of iPhone 5 prototypes being spotted from North America to Asia. But we know for a fact that Apple has yet to begin iPhone 5 production, with some reports indicating that even no “production roadmap” has been presented to Apple’s component suppliers and assemblers. Now, just because the news leak-prone Asian suppliers haven’t seen the production roadmap doesn’t mean that it doesn’t exist: the iPhone 5 could most likely be put into production at a moment’s notice by Apple, since by this time, all of the plans and specs for the next iPhone are in place. But when you consider how successful the iPhone 4 has been over the past 10 months or so, why even bother rushing the iPhone 5? To be sure, a severely-stalled iPhone 5 could irk enough stalwart iPhone users to defect to Droid, as we have reported on in another article. But there is another angle to this iPhone 5 delay: Apple may may have realized that stalling the iPhone 5 will funnel more prospective iPhone users to the iPhone 4. After all, why spend all of the time, money, and resources to improve on the iPhone 4 if it’s still selling like hotcakes? I often use Nintendo’s various gaming consoles as an analogy to Apple’s own marketing and production logic, and the Wii proves this rationale beautifully: the Wii hasn’t been updated in years, and yet the console — and its litany of games — continue to sell robustly. All Nintendo has to do every year is refresh the product with something cosmetic — such as the black and red Wiis — or the addition of new accessories, like the Wii Motion Plus. In many ways, the white iPhone 4 is akin to these above-mentioned examples, and a simple, cost-effective way of extending the lifecycle of the iPhone 4. Will Apple Wait Until 2012 to Release the iPhone 5? Up until this point, the iPhone 5 News Blog hasn’t entertained rumors that the iPhone 5 could get pushed back as far as 2012 — for the most part, we’ve stuck to our belief that it will make its debut at the end of the summer. (And we were the first blog to predict a late-summer release of the iPhone 5, by the way.) However, the only factor that supports the notion that the iPhone 5 could be released as late as 2012 is the continued sales success of the iPhone 4. In the first quarter of 2011 alone, Apple has sold 16.24 million iPhones. And with the release of the white iPhone 4 sometime in April or May, as well as continued rumors of the late iPhone 5, it isn’t unrealistic to imagine that Apple may come close to doubling up on sales at the end of the second quarter. With all of this in mind, perhaps the most effective way of ensuring a timely release of the iPhone 5 is for people to stop buying the iPhone 4? |
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